Include stable population information

Don't include stable population information

Sex

Project to (year)

Using ratios from

Impose iTFR?

If Yes, iTFR level

If Yes, iTFR AR(1)

Projected sex ratio at birth

Net migration adjustment (annual, percent of population)

Gross migration adjustment (percent of net migration ratios)

Gross migration age profile to use

Impute mortality?

If yes, Brass' model alpha for First projection step...

...and Brass' model alpha for Last projection step

Life table standard to use

This interface was made with Shiny for R. Eddie Hunsinger, August 2019 (updated January 2022).

Information including formulas, a spreadsheet demonstration, and slides for a related talk, as well as R code with input files for several examples, including a stochastic version and an errors review version is all available in the related GitHub repository.

Population estimates inputs from US Census Bureau Vintage 2019 Population Estimates.

More information on cohort change ratios, including a chapter on stable population: Baker, Swanson, Tayman, and Tedrow (2017).

More information on iTFR: Hauer and Schmertmann (2019) and Hauer, Baker, and Brown (2013).

Slides with background thoughts on adjusting net migration: Hunsinger (2007). Migration by age over time comparisons from Alaska data: Hunsinger (2018). Interface with net migration adjustment examples and comparisons: Hunsinger (2019). Migration adjustment profile was made from the US Census Bureau's 2013 to 2017 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, accessed via the IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota.

Graph of e0 and Brass' relational life table alpha by US state. Model life table (0.0 alpha) is the 5x5 2010 to 2014 life table for California from the United States Mortality Database.

Applied Demography Toolbox listing.

Cohort Change Ratio-Based Stable Population Review Shiny App - Florida