County

Project to (year)

Using ratios from

Number of projection iterations (sample size)

iTFR AR(1) term (range inputs give uniform range option, for uncertain autocorrelation, etc.)

...and iTFR level term

...and iTFR standard error term

Adjust net migration? (Annual, percent of total population)

If yes, net migration adjustment AR(1) term (range inputs give uniform range option, for uncertain autocorrelation, etc.)

...and net migration adjustment level term

...and net migration adjustment standard error term

Brass' mortality model alpha for First projection step (range inputs give uniform range option, for uncertain drift, etc.)

...and Brass' model alpha drift term (increase per step)

...and Brass' model alpha standard error term

This interface was made with Shiny for R. Eddie Hunsinger, November 2020 (updated January 2023).

Information including formulas, a spreadsheet demonstration, and slides for a related talk, as well as R code with input files for several examples, including the main stable population review version that it's based on, an errors review version and a single-year-of-age version, is all available in the related GitHub repository.

Population estimates inputs from US Census Bureau Vintage 2019 Population Estimates.

More information on cohort change ratios: Baker, Swanson, Tayman, and Tedrow (2017).

Supporting work and thinking on stochastic population projection: Hunsinger (2011).

More information on iTFR: Hauer and Schmertmann (2019) and Hauer, Baker, and Brown (2013).

Slides with background thoughts on adjusting net migration: Hunsinger (2007). Migration by age over time comparisons from Alaska data: Hunsinger (2018). Interface with net migration adjustment examples and comparisons: Hunsinger (2019). Migration adjustment profile was made from the US Census Bureau's 2013 to 2017 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, accessed via the IPUMS USA, University of Minnesota.

Graph of e0 and Brass' relational life table alpha by US state. Model life table (0.0 alpha) is the 5x5 2010 to 2014 life table from the United States Mortality Database.

Applied Demography Toolbox listing.

Cohort Change Ratio-Based Stochastic Population Projection Review Shiny App - Based on Cohort Change Ratio-Based Stable Population Review Shiny App